Turkish historical roots

So now the entangled Turkey I have described in my last post is set to fight back the economical crisis. The economic leverage Turkey is looking at is lying as much in politics as in macroeconomics.

Turkey is a country born lonely in the cold of the battlefields. Its ennemies ranged from the western colonial powers to its more immediate neighborhood enraged with the frustration of some missed opportunities (territorial or political gains) and occupied with the necessities of nation-building ("we are not like them"). Many organizations, secret services, political or religious circles thus across time achieved to undermine the return of Turkey to its past strength (cf. GDP per capita numbers in the nearby graph). The idea of an obligated friendship has also long triggered the relations with NATO.

This amounted to various strategy and tactics which nurtured instability in the country (with the best example being kurdish and armenian terrorism) but also across the region. This has been done mostly by encouraging arms race with Greece, keeping hot spots in Cyprus or in Nagorno-Karabakh, setting up Israel as the policing authority of the Near-East.

These achieved holding back the political and economical development of Turkey. Now what has been brought back in order is that where the development of economy was limited by many of these factors, the ranking has changed for first initiating the development of politics and regional power before economy. Papers and news stories may be concerned Turkey is no more a western ally but this lies much in the comfort of the past relation. Turkey is reasserting stronger than ever that its political agenda will no more be set by external motives.

The risk lies in getting off-limit and over-reaching one's capacity. After the local elections, the time of internal diversions on the values of the society will probably pass to address the serious matters lying in the backgound. First comes the restarting of the relations with the EU then the relations with Armenia.

Timing on EU subjects can profit from the friendly presidencies of Sweden and Spain starting from this summer to start closing some chapters and opening new ones. Reform is more necessary than ever to ensure the capitals needed to soften the economic crisis. Armenia is another urgent subject since it is the last track for solving the genocide claims, the US are about to recognize. Having the US setting up the historian committee in charge of studying the facts and bringing its conclusions to the UN would be the best chance for all parties to agree.

And in the end, since this is the year of the conflict/aborted conflict with Iran, the foreign shuttle services will run vividly with however little control over the results. The important here being the ability to jump in a possible vacuum left behind a retracting iranian diplomacy (for adressing the internal stability of Iran).

Turkey: where are you headed ?

While there are more and more troubles that Turkey imposes to itself, the lack of progress in major matters is everyday more obvious.

No possibility to alter constitution because constitutional court doubts on the ruling party's intentions, no possibility to get closer to Europe because of one French politician, no move on Cyprus before the Greeks act, no closing of any chapter on the EU negotiations, no proposal to Armenia while creative ideas are welcomed, .. That is a long list making think that Turkey can sometimes acts like a dog trying to catch its own tail. Who are these people trying to save Turkey by whirling around the same single ideas they got for 50 years or more. Isn't threatening Turkey with bullets in the feet, a non-solution for any kind of problem? Will there be anything left to save at the end?
Turkey will in the end redefine itself as more than its 20th century antagonisms. Turkey needs to find its balance and it is time for all politicians and administrations to think that they belong to the same country. If discussions in Turkey circle around foreign rules being imposed then maybe it is high time to construct a Turkey setting the standards. For now Turkey is blocking itself from moving in any direction. Possibilities of compromises have to arise for Turkey to set new objectives and continue to enhance itself.

Turkey in the forefront for taming Russia

Can Turkey once again act as the brake to the expansion of russian sphere of influence? There is no easy answer to this but we can see that the hotspots of active diplomacy more and more threatens turkish renewed interests in its own historical sphere of influence. Promises of better relations with Russia surface in many countries all around Turkey and it is necessary to act before Russia gets a too strong hand. It is very meaningfull that all the areas under trouble and mostly many frozen conflicts are linked or even maintained by Russia. Is Russia troublesome only to people wanting to avoid a multipolar world? No. Russia pretends to the old place that USSR once occupied and is ready to use all means for this.

It is significant that Turkey started to act to remove some energy keys from the hands of Russia by realizing the BTC, contracts with Iran and other projects aimed to reach the status of "energy hub". This is however temporary relief and does not mean the battles are over. We should see Turkey prove it can bring more than dangers to the regions of Caucasus and Central Asia. For this, a strong cultural activity would be the best way to relay the increase in economic interests known by the parties. Such an activity could also gets the interest of EU and it is possible to imagine cooperation between EU and Turkey to strenghten this traditional area of influence of Turkey. This is the time when it is possible to cool down the fireplaces and bring Russia closer to cooperation with the "West". Putin may be weaker that it has been and while his targets remain high, his realizations lack any more idea than reenforcing the status quo (or bringing back a form of USSR).

Turkey moves in too many directions

As Turkey integrates in its geopolitical surroundings with a strong hand, it seems to forget its strategy.
Positive developments on the Kurdish issue, on cooperation with Israel, Syria, Iran or Georgia should not make Turkey bet on making a pause in its accession process. It is exactly the right time to take bold measure to catch up with the pace of reforms that once amazed the EU commission. There is still some areas of improvement to build an opened, democratic and liberal Turkey. The judiciary, the military, the transportation and the job market are all keys to the development of Turkey to a closer integration with EU. The road is setup but the driver shouldn't hesitate in taking it. As we know, Turkey aims to become a bridge between civilizations, religions, economies and a facilitator in many subjects. To do this, a regional focus would kill the chicken in the egg. No! Turkey needs to reach a global scale and when times are harsh with EU, it should both

• prove it is a reliable and trusted partner for the EU, surpassing expectations and estimates
• reach to the group of countries that Turkey is starting to be part of (the famous BRIC Brazil/Russia/India/China)

In fact, Turkey shares many things, in its structure, culture, ambitions and could share much with countries like India. Turkey should achieve better results in the sectors of finance and information technology and strengthen its already strong industrial and construction sector by favoring SMEs, startups and R&D thus allowing more niche players (high added-value). The fact that countries with big potentials have little interest in products coming from Turkey can be a concern as the current trade deficits show.

With all these card in their hand there is no reason Turkey couldn't transcend its consolidated regional power. It is however still necessary to make strong choices to deliver on this potential.

Turkey's wording issues

Turkey has a lot of problems with the words used for labeling political matters linked with the fall of the Ottoman empire.

First is the use of "Kurdistan" by the terrorists of the PKK organization or also by the Kurdistan Regional Government. This upsets turkish politicians and nationalists since there is no way they may accept that a Turkish Kurdistan exists (like an Iraqi Kurdistan exists). This combat on words is very archaic since the variables of this old debate had considerably changed and that the first city of the kurds (in number) is Istanbul. There is little use of combating the words while installing the facts. There are some incentives that could be developed with the leaders of Northern Iraq to create cultural exchanges with Turkey. In fact there is a lot of ignorance in the relation between turks and iraqi kurds, including between turkish kurds and iraqi kurds (who speak and write different dialects). This does not mean independence should be recognized but positive outlook of Iraqis on Turkey would favor taking into account some sensitivities beyond the "Kurdistan" word. The first aim Turkey should have is to help lowering the corruption in Northern Iraq.

Same can be said about the famous "genocide" word. A fight for words that has helped little to understand the positions of the participant to the heated debate. There is no highlight that labeling the facts, crimes of intent should require some grounds. That the armenian of Istanbul and Jerusalem should logically have been also targeted. That population destabilizing the eastern front line were risking the existence of a threatened empire. That some armenian were engaged in political activities and propaganda (publishing mostly in Europe). That armenian lobbies often slips to territorial claims, to competition in the horror, to hatred for turks (no crime - whichever - should be answered by a crime). Yes, little remains of all these facts except a denial of genocide.

Let's make Turkey move to the content of the debates. Let's make it no longer a problem to use "sensitive" words. Let's make ideas more free and sharing information easier..

Armenia : Dark Age or New Age ?

After the murder of Agos editor in chief Hrant Dink, the place has opened for renewed exchanges between Turkey and Armenia. His sound approach to the problems in Turkey wether they are related to his armenian descent or not should be highlighted. He was in no doubt that his beloved country was engaged on a much better way for the respect of his thoughts and writings than Armenia would be. This is a trigger on how vigilant we should be to not let any situation deteriorate and that Armenia should be brought closer to Turkey and the EU, not that Turkey should copy the backward mentalities that corrode the political life in Armenia. So let's hope for a Turkey ready to invest on its relation with Armenia and an Armenia investing on democracy (in coming elections - 12th of May). The exchanges between armenian and turks have always been fruitful and have a long background of shared culture and values. The armenian diaspora should not disturb this process and lower their hateful rhetoric to help each country in the steps that are unavoidable. The EU is not welcomed in this process since they failed so many times in solving anything in this area from Georgia to Karabakh and they tend to impose views that are all but helping progress on this issue.

Happy New Year To All 27 EU members

(and of course to the one hundred ninety something other countries)

Two more countries have joined the EU, adding more than 30 millions people and hundreds of new problems to the already clogged EU enlargement process. Politics are betting on keeping a low profile for hiding the risks inherent to this fast integration of a big and poor chunk of the Balkan. More precisely the least developed part of Europe. However the mechanisms in place provide control over the evolutions of Romania and Bulgaria. This may still direct Germany and EU in general to a tougher attitude and the adoption of new institutions.

More interesting, as former Ottoman Empire members, this may seal a more decisive policy about turning the head of Europe towards East. If for many centuries, Europe's center was the Mediterranean Sea, and after that the Atlantic Ocean, we can hope that the time is coming for being more directed to the Black Sea / Caspian Sea.

The path to a multicultural Europe is certainly at the cost of an effort for this century to be a collaboration with countries that we contradicted for so long. But they still have exchanged extensively with Europe and are much open to its lights and values.