Diplomatic moves: Learning slalom

On Cyprus, Turkey has learned to move more smoothly across the troubled EU waters. Previously, on the path to EU, when issues were faced by Turkey, the classical situation was an escalation of incomprehension, the definition of red lines and the accusation of unfair or unbalanced treatments. Turkey is moving more easily and is getting experienced with the tough process awaiting it. Result is that even if the move created uneasiness at home, the turkish hand has been stronger and Europe mainly sticked to European Commission recommendations.

Most important is that Republic Of Cyprus has been incited to move for a settlement for the long lasting dispute on the island. The idea of reciprocity of efforts on both parts of the island is making its way and it will be harder in the coming years to maintain status quo. Greece has given up trying anything with Cyprus, EU is pushing both sides to get closer economically but has no power and legitimity to solve political problems and ultimately UN is fed up with trying to separate spoilt local powers of this tiny island from spitting to eachother face. So this can be a turning point in the Cyprus Problem and Greek Cyprus will whether defend the current state of affairs in the wait of the "European Solution" whether it will review its strategy and look for an Annan plan with improved implementation phases and calendars.

So in a similar way Turkey can take a tremendous step on the armenian genocide claims
by voting a law stating the following :

"The Ottoman Empire on the verge of its implosion under the external pressure of the greatest military powers of the XXth century, ordered in 1915 a migration of the local armenian communities in order to keep the control of its supply lines, and avoid clashes among ethnic lines. The relocation has been run into a failure and the empire could not protect these citizens that contributed so much to many ottoman achievements. Thus, Turkey recognizes that in the Ottoman Empire a genocide by negligence has taken place."

This implies that the recognition of their suffering asked by many armenians is clearly worded as they desired. However, any legal action is not helped with this formulation since :

1. No author is labeled

2. A genocide according to UN resolutions cannot be the consequence of a negligence

This position is a compromise solution that allows to move out of the debate on words and denial. This is a true challenge for Turkey but bold steps on such issue would better integrate Turkey in the EU-Caucasus axis and maybe even help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Where is the European Commisssion heading ?

One month ago, the European Commission the core of the European machinery, criticized Turkey for its slowing pace of reforms and for a change in its will to move forward. The recommendations issued at that time were in order to avoid the 'train crash' between the EU and Turkey, meaning a stop of the harmonization process and of the integration of Turkey in the EU.

Under political pressure, the European Commission is now advising that the negociations with Turkey should "slow down" ! Probably, when things are not moving fast enough, everybody is required to use its energy to impose speed limits. That trick is quite unwise but however the negociations will continue with less chapters having the green light to be opened and closed. Furthermore like every six months only one subject of focus will be in the mouths of the paralyzed EU leaders: Turkey (and Cyprus). Their only way to evolve the EU seems to try to force Turkey to make concessions on Cyprus... I think there is clearly no relation between the future of EU and Cyprus. If EU ever cared about Cyprus as something else than a puppet at the hands of Greece, Cyprus would have not entered EU by creating 300 000 outlaws. This Turkish Community of the island are European Citizens labelled as Out Of Control. When you can create such situations and ask others to solve it, there is a limit to reason.

So that is what it comes to, a few political leader have decided to play the Cyprus card against Turkey but this masquerade can easily slips out of hands since Cyprus has a right of veto on EU decisions. Cyprus is for example imposing with its deemed 'veto strategy' that the United Nations stay at distance with the island problems. This is clearly leading to two possible exits: the partition of the island in a Greek and a Turk Republic of Cyprus or the merge of the Turkish Community in the 'Republic Of Cyprus'. When the EU leaders will have played enough with Turkey for electoral gains, they will come back to the world realities and will want to have again closer relations with Turkey may it be for the energy supply lines, for the democratization of Georgia, for coutering the Iran rise in the region, for middle east peace intiitatives, etc. Wether the situation in Cyprus had evolved or not, there will still be a member (a Greek Republic Of Cyprus or any kind of Republic Of Cyprus with a Greek Cypriot majority) that has a hate relation with Turkey. Any decision by the EU on Turkey would be vetoed.

How can the EU fix its mess? There is only one option, wich is to pressure the Greek Cypriots to accept a new version of the Annan plan engaging in the creation of the United Cyprus. What is the best pressure to apply on the Republic Of Cyprus ? There is a main option that is the improvement of socio-economic conditions in the Northern part Of Cyprus (that is officially part of the EU territory). Seeing that their turkish neighbours could live by themselves without their help and without restrictions, will change the look of Greek Cypriots on the Turkish Community. Let's hope the EU will understand where its interest as well as the interest of all the citizens of Cyprus is.