Turkey in the forefront for taming Russia

Can Turkey once again act as the brake to the expansion of russian sphere of influence? There is no easy answer to this but we can see that the hotspots of active diplomacy more and more threatens turkish renewed interests in its own historical sphere of influence. Promises of better relations with Russia surface in many countries all around Turkey and it is necessary to act before Russia gets a too strong hand. It is very meaningfull that all the areas under trouble and mostly many frozen conflicts are linked or even maintained by Russia. Is Russia troublesome only to people wanting to avoid a multipolar world? No. Russia pretends to the old place that USSR once occupied and is ready to use all means for this.

It is significant that Turkey started to act to remove some energy keys from the hands of Russia by realizing the BTC, contracts with Iran and other projects aimed to reach the status of "energy hub". This is however temporary relief and does not mean the battles are over. We should see Turkey prove it can bring more than dangers to the regions of Caucasus and Central Asia. For this, a strong cultural activity would be the best way to relay the increase in economic interests known by the parties. Such an activity could also gets the interest of EU and it is possible to imagine cooperation between EU and Turkey to strenghten this traditional area of influence of Turkey. This is the time when it is possible to cool down the fireplaces and bring Russia closer to cooperation with the "West". Putin may be weaker that it has been and while his targets remain high, his realizations lack any more idea than reenforcing the status quo (or bringing back a form of USSR).

Turkey moves in too many directions

As Turkey integrates in its geopolitical surroundings with a strong hand, it seems to forget its strategy.
Positive developments on the Kurdish issue, on cooperation with Israel, Syria, Iran or Georgia should not make Turkey bet on making a pause in its accession process. It is exactly the right time to take bold measure to catch up with the pace of reforms that once amazed the EU commission. There is still some areas of improvement to build an opened, democratic and liberal Turkey. The judiciary, the military, the transportation and the job market are all keys to the development of Turkey to a closer integration with EU. The road is setup but the driver shouldn't hesitate in taking it. As we know, Turkey aims to become a bridge between civilizations, religions, economies and a facilitator in many subjects. To do this, a regional focus would kill the chicken in the egg. No! Turkey needs to reach a global scale and when times are harsh with EU, it should both

• prove it is a reliable and trusted partner for the EU, surpassing expectations and estimates
• reach to the group of countries that Turkey is starting to be part of (the famous BRIC Brazil/Russia/India/China)

In fact, Turkey shares many things, in its structure, culture, ambitions and could share much with countries like India. Turkey should achieve better results in the sectors of finance and information technology and strengthen its already strong industrial and construction sector by favoring SMEs, startups and R&D thus allowing more niche players (high added-value). The fact that countries with big potentials have little interest in products coming from Turkey can be a concern as the current trade deficits show.

With all these card in their hand there is no reason Turkey couldn't transcend its consolidated regional power. It is however still necessary to make strong choices to deliver on this potential.

Turkey's wording issues

Turkey has a lot of problems with the words used for labeling political matters linked with the fall of the Ottoman empire.

First is the use of "Kurdistan" by the terrorists of the PKK organization or also by the Kurdistan Regional Government. This upsets turkish politicians and nationalists since there is no way they may accept that a Turkish Kurdistan exists (like an Iraqi Kurdistan exists). This combat on words is very archaic since the variables of this old debate had considerably changed and that the first city of the kurds (in number) is Istanbul. There is little use of combating the words while installing the facts. There are some incentives that could be developed with the leaders of Northern Iraq to create cultural exchanges with Turkey. In fact there is a lot of ignorance in the relation between turks and iraqi kurds, including between turkish kurds and iraqi kurds (who speak and write different dialects). This does not mean independence should be recognized but positive outlook of Iraqis on Turkey would favor taking into account some sensitivities beyond the "Kurdistan" word. The first aim Turkey should have is to help lowering the corruption in Northern Iraq.

Same can be said about the famous "genocide" word. A fight for words that has helped little to understand the positions of the participant to the heated debate. There is no highlight that labeling the facts, crimes of intent should require some grounds. That the armenian of Istanbul and Jerusalem should logically have been also targeted. That population destabilizing the eastern front line were risking the existence of a threatened empire. That some armenian were engaged in political activities and propaganda (publishing mostly in Europe). That armenian lobbies often slips to territorial claims, to competition in the horror, to hatred for turks (no crime - whichever - should be answered by a crime). Yes, little remains of all these facts except a denial of genocide.

Let's make Turkey move to the content of the debates. Let's make it no longer a problem to use "sensitive" words. Let's make ideas more free and sharing information easier..

Armenia : Dark Age or New Age ?

After the murder of Agos editor in chief Hrant Dink, the place has opened for renewed exchanges between Turkey and Armenia. His sound approach to the problems in Turkey wether they are related to his armenian descent or not should be highlighted. He was in no doubt that his beloved country was engaged on a much better way for the respect of his thoughts and writings than Armenia would be. This is a trigger on how vigilant we should be to not let any situation deteriorate and that Armenia should be brought closer to Turkey and the EU, not that Turkey should copy the backward mentalities that corrode the political life in Armenia. So let's hope for a Turkey ready to invest on its relation with Armenia and an Armenia investing on democracy (in coming elections - 12th of May). The exchanges between armenian and turks have always been fruitful and have a long background of shared culture and values. The armenian diaspora should not disturb this process and lower their hateful rhetoric to help each country in the steps that are unavoidable. The EU is not welcomed in this process since they failed so many times in solving anything in this area from Georgia to Karabakh and they tend to impose views that are all but helping progress on this issue.

Happy New Year To All 27 EU members

(and of course to the one hundred ninety something other countries)

Two more countries have joined the EU, adding more than 30 millions people and hundreds of new problems to the already clogged EU enlargement process. Politics are betting on keeping a low profile for hiding the risks inherent to this fast integration of a big and poor chunk of the Balkan. More precisely the least developed part of Europe. However the mechanisms in place provide control over the evolutions of Romania and Bulgaria. This may still direct Germany and EU in general to a tougher attitude and the adoption of new institutions.

More interesting, as former Ottoman Empire members, this may seal a more decisive policy about turning the head of Europe towards East. If for many centuries, Europe's center was the Mediterranean Sea, and after that the Atlantic Ocean, we can hope that the time is coming for being more directed to the Black Sea / Caspian Sea.

The path to a multicultural Europe is certainly at the cost of an effort for this century to be a collaboration with countries that we contradicted for so long. But they still have exchanged extensively with Europe and are much open to its lights and values.